DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN TANZANIA

Demographic transition; refers to the transition from high birth and death rate to low birth and death rate as country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system (Wough D).

There are four stages of demographic transition based on population change in several industrialized countries in Western Europe and North America, suggesting that all countries have to pass through. They are as follows;

Stage 1; Pre industrial society

In this stage both birth rate and death rate fluctuates at a high level (about 35 per 1000) giving a small population growth. Here birth rate are high due to no birth control, many children are needed to work on lands, also death rates are high due to the presence of diseases and plague, famine and poor hygiene.

Stage 2; Transition stage

Under this stage birth rate remain high, but death rates fall rapidly to about 20 per 1000 people giving a rapid population growth. This fall is due to improved medical care, improved sanitation and water supply, improved food production (both quality and quantity), improved transport to move food, doctor and due to decrease in child mortality.

Stage 3; Industrial stage

This is the stage where birth rate now fall rapidly to perhaps 20 per 1000people, while death rates continue to fall slightly (15 per 1000 people) to give a slowly increasing population. This fall may  be due to family planning, a lower infant mortality rate, increased industrialization and mechanization, an increase incentive for smaller families and women emancipation.

Stage 4; post industrial society

In this stage there are both low birth rates and low death rates; birth late may drop to well below replacement level as happened in country like Italy, German, and Japan leading to shrinking population. Death rate may remain constantly low or increasing due to increase in lifestyle diseases.

            Therefore as we have seen above the stages of demographic transition, Tanzania belongs to stage two, this is due to the fact that the characteristics of stage two are experienced by Tanzania as follows;

Population of Tanzania has increased from 44 million in 2012 to current population of 49,639,138 people according to CIA world fact book.

Birth rate has increased from 34.64 births/1,000 populations in 2012 to 36.82 births per 1000 population in 2014  while Death rate in 2014 was 8.2 deaths per 1000 population leading decrease of annual growth rate from 2.9% in 2002 to annual growth rate of 2.7% in 2012  (National Bureau of Statistics, 2002 and 2012 Population and Housing Census)

 

            Death rates has decreased due to improvements in sanitation facility access by 12.2% otf total population, drinking water source improved by 53.2 % of total population, also due to decrease in infant mortality and maternal mortality.

Improvement of social and economic infrastructure such as clean water, communication, transport system and electricity, these services help in one way or another for stance clean water reduces diseases; good roads help in people to reach hospital quickly hence saves lives of people

Agricultural growth has varied across food crops, cash crops and livestock. Within food crops, maize is the most important (accounting for over 20 percent of total agricultural GDP) followed by rice/paddy, beans, cassava, sorghum, and wheat. Within cash crops the most important by export value are coffee, cashew, cotton, tobacco and tea. The recent annual average growth rates of export crops, food crops, and livestock has been about 6, 4, and 3 percent respectively according to agricultural sector development programme (ASDP) led to increase in  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from  32,293 Tshs billion in 2010 to 44,718 Tshs billion in 2012

 

Investments in greater efficiency and relevance of technology generation and use can yield extremely attractive productivity returns. Much of the past growth in Tanzanian agriculture was the result of area expansion and improvements in the incentive regime. However, there have been recent improvements in yields Raising farm productivity and product value require better management of agricultural resources, in particular land and water, and access to improved technologies. Improving the efficiency, relevance and effectiveness of the process of technology generation and dissemination (agricultural research and extension/advisory services and other technical services); investments in local infrastructure, including irrigation; and improving the policy and regulatory environment are advocated as key priorities for continued public support in the Government ASDP.

Tanzania is also a farming country; Tanzanian families depend a lot on children, a lot of children work in the fields growing food, raising livestock, hunting, and fishing for their family, and these are all characteristics of a stage 2 country.

All in all Tanzania as one among developing courtiers we are still in stage two although we have tried a lot to make improvements in attaining Millennium Development Goal such as universal primary education, reducing poverty, reducing infant mortarity, combating HIV and empowering women. 

                                            BYEE